Saturday, February 6, 2016

Fun with numbers: The real story behind the unemployment report

When a Republican is elected to the White House, all of a sudden the MSM will wake up and discover how deceptive the unemployment numbers are.  And then without even blinking, it will all be the new President's fault.
On the surface, the January jobs numbers appear to be "not bad." There were 151,000 jobs created, and the official unemployment rate dropped below 5%. But the story inside the numbers is really, really awful.
Just terrible.

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Never Bet Against The Capitalists Part II

This story expounds on something I mentioned in an earlier post.  In that post, I quoted a magazine that mentioned that the fracking technology was getting better and more efficient.

Now, another story with more WOW! factor on the American landscape of shale oil.  Should the Saudis and Russians give up?  I really, really think they should consider something besides what is almost like a brute force DNS attack.  Some of the American producers have break even costs of  $22.52?  $23.40?  This is almost hard to imagine!  And it's a LOT of oil.

Yes, American Capitalists can keep this game up for a LOT longer than anyone ever thought possible.

According to a report by the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts William Foiles and Andrew Cosgrove, Saudi Arabia may have its work cut out for it as it will be far harder to kill many U.S. E&Ps than analysts originally thought.

The reason: a break-even model for the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shows that oil production across five plays in Texas and New Mexico may remain profitable even when WTI prices fall below $30 a barrel, according to a 55-variable Bloomberg Intelligence model for horizontal oil wells.

The Eagle Ford's DeWitt County has the lowest break-even, at $22.52, followed by Reeves County wells targeting the Wolfcamp Formation, at $23.40. The diversity of breakevens highlights the hazard posed by looking for a single number, even within a play.

These counties together produced about 551,000 barrels of liquids a day in October. Taking into account drilled but uncompleted wells boosts the number of potential survivors to 19. The wide range of break-evens undermines efforts to come up with a single threshold for U.S. shale producers.
It's not pretty out there at all, but this story is nothing short of astonishing.

But I called it. I knew from past history, unless they tilt the board, whole countries with more money than anyone can imagine can not compete against Capitalists.

America....has won.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

California's evaporating gas tax

I'm sorry guys, but you can not eat your cake and have it, too.  Grow up!

Last month, the California Transportation Commission said the state would cut transportation funding by $754 million — a 38% decrease. Why? Because revenue from the state's levies on gasoline sales, which provide much of that funding, plummeted as gas prices dropped and more fuel-efficient vehicles proliferated. Those falling prices cut the state's gas excise tax revenue from 18 cents a gallon two years ago to 12 cents last year, and revenue is expected to sink to 10 cents in July. Every penny in revenue lost per gallon means a $140-million drop in transportation funding.

As a result, not only will no new projects be funded, but more than 200 projects already in development also would be de-funded or delayed. In Los Angeles County, for example, the cut could jeopardize the purchase of new light-rail cars, the construction of a pedestrian bridge at the Burbank Airport Metrolink station, and the widening of State Route 138 in the Antelope Valley.
Put in toll booths.

Will Environmentalists Force California to Choose "Dirty" Energy Over Clean Nuclear?

When are the CA'ians going to stop listening to the radical environmentalists?

On Sunday, Breakthrough Institute co-founder Michael Shellenberger and former Missouri Botanical Gardens head Peter Raven, published an op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle explaining that those people who are concerned about the future of climate change should be in favor of keeping the Diablo Canyon plants open. Why?

"Diablo Canyon produces twice as much power as all of California’s solar panels, 24 percent more than all of its wind, and 40 times more than its largest solar farm," observed Shellenberger and Raven. "Also, Diablo Canyon provides power to 3 million Californians on a patch of land the size of three football fields. Achieving the equivalent from a solar farm would require 145 times more land; from wind, 500 times more."

Interestingly, an article today on the controversy in Mother Jones points out that California's "rate of reducing carbon emissions is slower than the national average—a 7.5 percent reduction since 2000, compared with 9.6 percent nationwide." Replacing Diablo Canyon reactors with natural gas plants would make that record even worse.

Why California gasoline is so expensive

So, the author tries to determine the "evil" profit and who is to blame for the high price.  The answer?

They only have themselves to blame.

We begin with taxes. California’s combined state and federal taxes add 59 cents to each gallon of gas at the pump. That’s 11 cents above the U.S. average, reports the American Petroleum Institute.

Subtracting 11 cents in higher taxes from our 73-cent gouge gap leaves 62 cents of unexplained cost.

California has tacked on about 12 cents in fees for its “cap and trade” market and low-carbon fuels standard. This gets us to 50 cents.

State regulators also mandate a pollution-reducing blend that costs more to produce, although how much varies by refiner. When you compare the U.S. average for reformulated gas to California’s, the unexplained gap narrows further by 20 cents. Notably, the public overwhelmingly supports such environmental costs.

To review, taxes and environmental mandates directly account for 43 cents per gallon of the 73-cent cost we paid Monday above the U.S. average, leaving us with 30 cents to go.

Market forces — meaning profits for somebody — generally explain this 30 cents per gallon. If you guessed that regulators play a role here, too, go to the head of the class.

So, the crux of the story,without being a jerk about it, is "just live with it and shut up, because this is what CA wants."

Yeah.  Whatever.

Sunday, January 31, 2016

6 Big Cities See Hiring Fade After Minimum Wage Hikes

From IBD:
Bay Area Job Blues Bay Area job growth in the leisure and hospitality sector slumped to a five-year low after San Francisco and Oakland adopted the highest citywide minimum wage in the country of $12.25 an hour last spring.

After rising close to 5% a year, leisure and hospitality industry hiring slowed to just 2.2% from a year ago in November in the Bay Area. Meanwhile, such employment rose 4.9% in the rest of California, where the minimum wage was generally $3.25 lower — before the $1 statewide hike to $10 on Jan. 1.

Oakland’s minimum wage got an inflation-related bump to $12.55 with the start of 2016, with San Francisco’s jumping to $13 in July.

The Bay Area data cover the entire San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro area, of which the two cities’ population is one-third.

L.A. Hotel Jobs Hit By $15.37 Wage

Los Angeles-area hotels saw job growth fizzle after the L.A. City Council mandated that hotels with at least 300 rooms start paying workers a minimum of $15.37 an hour, the highest minimum in the nation, starting last July. The same wage will apply to workers at 150-room locations this coming July.

After growing by 3% or more the prior three years, Los Angeles County accommodation industry employment fell by an average of 3%, or 1,300 jobs, vs. a year earlier in the first 10 months of 2015. Meanwhile, hotel and motel jobs in the rest of California saw steady growth. Preliminary November data show employment bounced back just above year-earlier levels.


Super Bowl stumbles into San Francisco's haves vs have-nots divide

This means that SF is forever lost to Socialists.

Tommi Avicolli Mecca, director of counseling for the Housing Rights Committee, said he hates seeing San Francisco, which is already facing a $100 million budget shortfall, spending an estimated $5 million in taxpayer dollars to host events leading up to next Sunday's Super Bowl.

"The administration doesn't care about the poor and working class people and is only concerned about giving the rich somewhere to have a party," Avicolli Mecca said, noting that San Francisco rents have become unaffordable for many middle class people and that homelessness is rampant.


Bob Linscheid, president and CEO of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, acknowledged that affluence and poverty exist uncomfortably side-by-side in San Francisco, but said any blame cast on the Super Bowl is misplaced.

And it it lost on the Socialists WHY there is this wide gap between the "haves" and "have nots".  Who's been in control of SF?  Certainly not Capitalists and Conservatives!!