Saturday, May 28, 2016

The end of fine dining in New York City: NYC gets OK to issue salt fines during appeal

Even with the overwhelming research showing that too much salt isn't bad for you, NYC is still plowing ahead with its idiotic laws.  I think in the not too distant future, all the great restaurants will not be in in NYC, but outlying areas.
"Today's decision ... will force the men and women that own New York City's restaurants to start complying with this unlawful and unprecedented sodium mandate before the court has the chance to rule on the merits of our appeal," the organization said in a statement.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

The Johnny Funk: The Gold and Equities Swan Dive

The movements of gold and equities during the start of an equities bear market are almost like a well timed dual partner high dive.  I went back to the 2008/9 crash and saw the phenomena.  Then I started wondering if this happened during other bear markets. I was impressed with what I saw.  So, now I cal it the "Johnny Funk". But, hey, maybe it's all a coincidence...

I put this together a few months ago.  I was intrigued with the relationship between gold and the equities market:


Now, please keep in mind this is just my observance and it may or may not be correct.  I may be way off mark!!  Having said that, enter at your own risk!

Let’s compare this to the other bear markets before 2008/9.

First stop: 1987

I thought I would look at the other stock crashes and see if the same thing happened.  So, we first get in our WayBack Machine and look at the crash of ’87.  However, the ETF GLD was not around then.  Another fund was, though, called USERX which is a gold and precious metals mutual fund.
S&P500 is the bottom blue. USERX is the top red line.  What do you notice?
1               
          1) Gold rises first doing so at a rapid pace.

          2) Rising stock market peaks

          3) Gold falters and takes a nose dive.  Technically, it breaks down before the stock market drops.
          
         4) Gold continues to breakdown and reaches its low before the stock market reaches its low.
          
         5) Then the stock market makes its low.  In this case, gold tries to keep going up, but there’s too much in the way. Gold retreats from the pop up from the drop and continues its bear market.

Next stop: 2001

This chart is complex, coverinig a much longer period of time – it took 2 years for the SPX to bottom out.  In fact, it goes on for so long you could probably break it down even further and see the same pattern along the way.  There was no GLD ETF in the year 2000 so I had to break it up and use a different gold chart:

The $GOLD chart is on top and the S&P500 is on the bottom.

1)  Gold rises first, doing so at a rapid pace.  (I should note that gold was in a bear market through this time.  It was also higher a few weeks earlier…but we look at the closest rise in gold to the market top).

2) Rising stock market peaks

3)  Gold falters and takes a nose dive.  Technically, it breaks down before the stock market drops.

4) Gold continues to breakdown and reaches its low before the stock market reaches its low.

5)Then the stock market makes its low.  Unlike 1987, gold recovers nicely and starts on one of the most amazing bullmarkets ever.











Sunday, May 15, 2016

Hidden Microphones Exposed As Part of Government Surveillance Program In The Bay Area

Reaping the rewards of a society with no rules.  You become a slave to rules with the boot grinding harder on your neck:
Hidden microphones that are part of a clandestine government surveillance program that has been operating around the Bay Area has been exposed.

Imagine standing at a bus stop, talking to your friend and having your conversation recorded without you knowing. It happens all the time, and the FBI doesn’t even need a warrant to do it.

Federal agents are planting microphones to secretly record conversations.

Jeff Harp, a KPIX 5 security analyst and former FBI special agent said, “They put microphones under rocks, they put microphones in trees, they plant microphones in equipment. I mean, there’s microphones that are planted in places that people don’t think about, because that’s the intent!”
But if you have nothing to hide, what's the problem?



Thursday, May 12, 2016

Just How Exposed Is Silicon Valley’s Real Estate Market to Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, and LinkedIn?

Wolf asks a great question:
So what happens when the tech market turns, and when the layoffs spread from smaller companies, and from Motorola and Yahoo and the like to the Big Five, and they dump some of the vast leased space they’re now warehousing for future use on the sublet market?

Everyone here who’s been through this before knows what will happen. Sublease space will skyrocket. It will turn the market upside down. Demand will evaporate overnight. The market will become illiquid. Deal volume will crater. Lease rates will follow. This is always how it happens after such a boom.

“All it takes is a couple of big tech companies folding and the floodgates open, causing the sublease market to blow up, rents to drop, and new construction to grind to a halt,” according to Savills Studley new report on San Francisco. Read… “Market is on Edge”: US Commercial Real Estate Bubble Pops, San Francisco Braces for Brutal Dive

Monday, May 9, 2016

Watch the Nikkei

A few days ago when gold had made that tremendous pop up, I mentioned to my friends some things regarding the Japanese Nikkei stock market, Yen and gold.  To be perfectly honest I have no idea why the hell there is this relationship.  But for some reason, there is this crazy relationship.  So, today I thought I would show some visuals so you can see it, too.

Here is the Yahoo chart for the Nikkei and the Yen.  The lower line is the YEN (FXY ETF). As the Nikkei rises, the Yen goes down.  It’s an inverse relationship.


Now, we’ll superimpose the Yen to GLD.  And you’ll see the two track eachother.  Why does it do this?  I HAVE NO IDEA!!!


Will this keep up? To be honest, the Japanese economy is on life support.  And as time progresses, the Japanese situation just gets worse and worse.  Will this tracking continue?

Now finally, we have to ask ourselves, if the Japanese economy is in such bad shape, what does the future hold for the Nikkei??

Fortunately, for us, we have a long a long term chart for the Japanese stock market (Nikkei). As you can see, the overarching trend shows the Japanese stock market to TANK. From its (recent) peak of about 21,000 all the way down to 10,000. That’s a 50% loss.


What this is telling us is that gold will rise with the value of the Yen.  And the rise in gold will be absolutely stunning.

Finally, one final chart of the Japanese Yen and the UUP (exchange traded dollar ETF).  As you can see, the Yen and the USD have an inverse relationship.  As the Yen strengthens, the dollar weakens, thus driving up the price of gold.





And this is why I was able to tell my friends the good news before the markets even opened.
Go figure!!

UPDATE 2016-05-06

I just read an article that was posted on Lance Robert’s website http://realinvestmentadvice.com/weekend-reading-should-i-stay-or-should-i-go/

It’s an article on the Japanese Yen and its affect on the USD.  I’ll quote the pertinent sections of the Barron’s report (to see the entire article do a google search on the title of the article “The Dollar Is Weakening: Commodity Bulls Rejoice”):

The U.S. dollar index is a basket of currencies weighted by trade between the U.S and other countries. As such, its composition is roughly half weighted to the euro. Normally, that gives charts of the dollar index and the euro a mostly inverse relationship. The euro, however, has not made a technical breakout move from its own pattern. It is the Japanese yen, with its 13.6% weight, that is now driving the dollar index.
….
Trends in currencies, once they get started, tend to persist, sometimes for years. The yen last peaked in 2011, so last year’s bottoming followed a four-year bear market. Before that, it rallied from 2007 to 2011, also four years.
I do not want to suggest that there is another three or more years to go in the current rally, but it does seem that resistance for the yen ETF at the $97.00-$97.50 area is a reasonable upside target. The ETF traded at $90.87 Monday afternoon.
The most important takeaway is that because all of these currencies – both major and emerging – are in rising trends, it is the U.S. dollar that is weak. Only the yen now exhibits true strength on its own. Domestic interest-rate policy will be of keen interest to everyone as it directly influences the flow of capital and hence the demand for dollars.
The takeaway from the article is that the JPY will indeed be the catalyst for driving the USD down in value for the next several years (and gold upwards).  

But like I mentioned earlier to my colleagues there is no telling how long this will last. 

 I am of the opinion that the Yen will continue to rise….until it doesn’t.  

If the Yen can maintain its upward projection, it can do this for another three years….it is an axiomatic fact that markets can move higher far longer than you could possibly expect them to – the same with currencies... this will take us to….2019.  And this…is the beginning of the end…


...of everything.

Thursday, May 5, 2016

How the green energy bullies drive poverty

This has disaster written all over it.
According to AmericasPower.org, energy bills already consume, on average, a whopping one-fifth of low-income Americans’ income. Percentage-wise, lower-income and middle-income households spend more than twice the average of higher-income households on energy. And lower-income families in particular spend three times more proportionally on energy than households with higher incomes.

Consider California, home to billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer, who has financed major pushes for green energy mandates. According to the Institute for Energy Research, household electricity bills in California run about 40 percent higher than the national average and are the ninth-most expensive in the nation, thanks to a law requiring green energy to comprise 33 percent of the state’s electricity supply by 2020. Mr. Steyer testified in favor of a 2015 measure that would have raised the target to 50 percent by 2030.

A Manhattan Institute analysis indicates that 1 million California households now live in energy poverty. California currently has the nation’s highest poverty rate, which is now 50 percent higher than Mississippi.

We are following in the European footsteps.

Europe’s experience should serve as a warning. It has been subject to green energy mandates for years, and the economic impact hasn’t been pretty.

During the past eight years, electricity in Europe has become 42 percent more expensive, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Eight million French households are no longer able to pay their electricity bill, and some 350,000 German residences have had their power cut off, up 13 percent from 2011. German consumers’ electricity bills have doubled since 2000, when a renewable-energy levy was tacked onto every residential electricity bill to subsidize owners of turbines and solar panels. The World Health Organization estimates that 30 percent of European winter deaths may be attributable to living in insufficiently heated homes.

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Why has there been an exodus of black residents from West Coast liberal hubs?

Because Socialism is racist. Op-Ed piece in the LA Times:
If these figures merely reflected black consumer choice, they wouldn't necessarily matter; but the evidence suggests that specific public policies in these cities are to blame. Primary among them are restrictive planning regulations, common along the West Coast, that make it hard to expand the supply of housing. In a market with rising demand and static supply, prices go up.

As a rule, a household should spend no more than three times its annual income on a home. But in West Coast markets, housing-price levels far exceed that benchmark — a hardship that more severely affects blacks than whites because blacks start from further behind economically. Black median household income is only $35,481 a year, compared with $57,355 for whites. The wealth gap is even wider, with median black household wealth at only $7,133, compared with $111,146 for whites.